Orange County’s trending “purple” politics makes it a good bellwether for the state, and that is reflected in a new poll from UC Irvine regarding the June primary for governor, the dean of UCI’s School of Ecology said Wednesday.
“We are arguably the only purple county (in the state) and even in this purple county there’s still a whole lot of folks up in the air what their choice will be” for governor, Jon Gould said. “A quarter of the electorate doesn’t have a candidate and even when we push someone to choose it’s unclear who comes in second place.”
The UCI poll of Orange County residents found that 25% of respondents were undecided on the governor race. The top two gubernatorial candidates will advance from the so-called jungle primary in June to the November election. Some polls indicate Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco will advance because there are so many Democrats splitting the rest of the vote. The UCI poll bore that out — with Hilton leading at 19% and Bianco in second with 11%.
And the UCI poll surveyed residents “before (President Donald) Trump made his announcement Monday that he’s supporting Hilton,” Gould said.
“One could expect Bianco’s numbers to go down,” Gould said.
Among Democrats, billionaire Tom Steyer had support of 10% of pool respondents, while 9% backed former Rep. Katie Porter, 7% for Rep. Eric Swalwell and 5% for former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.
“Certainly Swalwell is poised to do well, as is Steyer, but both are taking incoming heat on negative advertising and Katie Porter is a former hometown congresswoman,” Gould said.
“It is a little surprising to a number of people here in the county where (Porter) served that she’s not doing as well,” Gould said.
Orange County has become a good barometer of the mood of the country and state because it is “so large” and politically split between Democrats and Republicans.
“There’s a lot of disappointment and disillusionment in everything these days,” Gould said of the poll’s findings.
The poll of 1,202 Orange County residents from March 24 thorough March 31 showed low marks for Trump and Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Trump’s approval stood at 35% with 65% disapproving. Newsom stood at 38% approval with 55% disapproval.
The poll showed 34% or respondents identifying as Democrat, 30% as Republican and 36% as independent or something else. That’s about the same as a 2004 survey.
The poll showed 62% of respondents think the country is on the wrong track with 30% saying it is on the right track. For the state, it was 57% on the wrong track versus 31% right track.
The poll showed 41% of respondents think the county is on the right track, 36% on the wrong track and 24% unsure. Two years ago, half the respondents said the county was on the right track and 35% said it was on the wrong track.
Trump’s support in the county is “concentrated among Republicans, with more than 80% approving, while nearly 9 in 10 Democrats disapprove,” according to the poll. “Independents also lean clearly negative, with about 60% disapproving and 30% approving, preventing Trump from expanding beyond his core base.”
Younger generations are “especially negative” for Trump with the president’s disapproval exceeding 65% to 70%, according to the poll.
“Older residents are somewhat less negative, but still net disapproving, except for seniors, who modestly support Mr. Trump,” according to the poll.
Approval of Trump runs about mid-40% for whites while Latinos and Asians approval ratings are closer to 25% to 30%, according to the poll.
The poll has good news for Democrats in the county on the generic congressional ballot. Democrats lead Republicans 49% to 36%, according to the poll.
“This margin exceeds the party identification gap, indicating that Democrats attract support beyond their base,” according to the poll.
Democrats are buoyed by Latino, Asian and younger voters, while Republicans perform best among whites and older voters, according to the poll.
Gould said the poll this year included a question on socialism vs capitalism and showed that younger voters favor socialism.
While capitalism overall is supported by county residents, the younger residents “are more skeptical,” according to the poll.
“Gen Z is the only group with net negative views of capitalism (35% positive, 52% negative), while millenials are more divided,” according to the poll. “Socialism topped out at 42-45% support among Gen Z and Millenials, with support declining noticeably among older residents.”
The poll indicates it is possible Orange County will trend more Democratic over time, Gould said.
“I’d much rather be a Democrat with young people and hope they hold on to it as they grow older,” Gould said. “If they stay where they are then Orange County should become even more blue as time goes on.”
The school will release another poll on views of immigration issues at the end of the month, Gould said.