A new poll of Orange County voters released Wednesday by UC Irvine’s School of Social Ecology shows residents evenly split between the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor, further emphasizing how purple the county has become politically.
A poll of 809 Orange County voters June 9 through June 12 shows Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton narrowly leading former Attorney General Xavier Becerra by a 47% to 44% margin with a 4.2% margin of error.
UCI professor Jon B. Gould, dean of the School of Social Ecology, said there has been statewide polling “that gives Becerra a fairly wide margin, which is why results in Orange County are so interesting because it shows what a purple county it is now… It is more moderate conservative than the rest of the state.”
In fact, Orange County is unusual nationally as well, Gould said.
Of the 25 largest counties by population in the country, Orange County is one of three that are this evenly split, Gould said.
“What makes it more interesting is where we’re seeing different groups going,” Gould said. “For example, Latinos traditionally have been a very Democratic group, but over the last two to four years we’ve seen them split between Democrat and independent.”
Asian-Americans in the county have traditionally been “fairly Republican,” but now are “polling very much independent or no party preference,” Gould said.
Another interesting trend is how younger voters are skewing more progressive, but drifting more toward independent than Democratic voters, Gould said.
“That is a reflection of young people disillusioned by politicians” no matter their affiliation, Gould said.
A majority of younger voters in Orange County told pollsters they favor socialism over capitalism, and while they are drifting away from the Democratic Party “they cannot stand Trump.”
The younger voters are “left of center” as well as “disillusioned with leadership,” Gould said.
Housing is a top concern with 61% naming it as one of the most important issues facing the state, according to the poll. That puts it well ahead of homelessness and gas prices at 46%, and government spending at 40%.
The cost of housing tops the list for every group surveyed, Gould said.
“The cost of living broadly defined is the number one issue,” Gould said.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating among Gen Z voters was at 14% in the poll with 53% of Boomers favoring the president, according to the poll. But 45% of Gen Z voters say they will definitely cast a ballot in November compared with 87% of Boomers.
Overall, Trump’s approval rating was 35%.
Latino voters support Becerra, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, by 54% to 37% in the poll. Asian-American voters back Becerra 50% to 41%.
About half of Latino voters plan to cast a ballot, and 59% of Asian-American voters plan to head to the polls, compared with 82% of white voters, according t the poll.
Men back Hilton by 14 points while women support Becerra by eight points.
The poll also showed that voters think the country is going in the wrong direction. The numbers have remained the same over the past few years with 65% saying the U.S. was on the wrong track in 2023, 61% in 2024, and 62% in March and 66% according to the survey released Wednesday.
Fifty-eight percent of the respondents said the state is on the wrong path.
As for Orange County, 42% say it is on the right path.