Californians feel the state is on the wrong track by a two-to-one margin, with both President Donald Trump and Gov. Gavin Newsom unpopular, but with the governor regaining support in his clashes over Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration, according to a UC Irvine poll released Wednesday.
“We’re in a period where Californians are not happy about a lot of things, the state of the nation, the state of the state or their elected leaders,” said Jon Gould, dean of UC Irvine’s school of social ecology.
The poll also showed that former Vice President Kamala Harris is the most popular choice for governor to succeed the termed-out Newsom in 2026.
The pollsters conducted three separate surveys with two in the last week of May and another in the first week of June and then a follow-up during the last week of June.
The dissatisfaction with the state’s direction varies according to partisan and demographic differences.
Among all Californians, 30% think the state is on the right track with 46% of Democrats agreeing with that assessment and only 18% of Republicans believing so. Among independents, 22% feel California is headed in the right direction.
The poll found that 60% of Californians put the state on the wrong track, including 46% of Democrats, 79% of Republicans and 64% of independents.
When broken down by ethnicity, 30% of whites believe the state is on the right track, 49% of Blacks, 22% of Latinos and 27% of Asians or other backgrounds. For age groups, the breakdown is 34% for Gen Z, 27% for Millennials, 28% for Gen X, 33% for Baby Boomers and 57% for the Silent Generation.
The biggest issue for Californians is affordable housing, Gould said.
“They don’t feel it’s been adequately addressed,” Gould said. “Democrats and independents are much more concerned about that than Republicans, which is an interesting phenomenon for Republicans who are not going to win in this state if they’re not addressing housing affordability.”
Since Orange County is among three of the most “purple” counties in the country in terms of split partisanship, the poll results can be seen as a view of the potential national mood, Gould said.
“What’s happening in Orange County really becomes, I think, an example for the rest of the country and what happens when the left and right live next to each other and have to figure out ways to at least interact,” Gould said.
Last year, a school survey of Orange County found that “half of the residents over the last four years contemplated leaving the county despite (the fact that) 80% like living here,” Gould said. “Above 70% said it was the cost of housing and the cost of living and nothing else came even close … Among homeowners, 20% were worried about being foreclosed on in the next two years. Half of the renters were worried about being tossed out.”
For Republicans, the dominant issue is law enforcement and crime “even though we’re at a period where crime is relatively low,” Gould said.
“The only issue on which we found Republicans and Democrats shared a similar perspective is no one prioritized road and bridge maintenance,” Gould said. “That was not a high priority for anybody.”
According to the poll report, “When asked about funding priorities for the state, 70% of Californians named housing. Indeed, 33% listed it as the top priority, mentioned almost twice as often as the next highest priority, health care.”
The poll showed significant partisan differences in priorities. Republicans seem out of step with other Californians in their lower prioritization of housing and higher ranking of regulation relief, just as Democrats are outliers in their higher prioritization of health care and education and lower rank for law enforcement and public safety, according to Gould.
The survey showed Trump is deeply unpopular in the state by more than a two-to-one ratio, which was the same “level of disapproval that was recorded before the federal government’s involvement in Los Angeles and continues virtually unchanged since then … The only group that supported Mr. Trump was Republicans, where three-quarters of respondents gave the president their approval, although only 39% strongly approved of him.”
Trump does best with whites and voters with a high school education or less at 41% and 42% respectively, according to the report.
Overall, 33% of Californians approve of him, and 64% disapprove, according to the report.
Among men, Trump’s approval was at 39%, 28% for women, 41% for whites, 24% for Blacks, 30% for Latinos and 28% for Asians and others.
For Gen Z (those 29 and younger), his disapproval was 70%, 60% for Millennials, 61% for Gen X, 64% for Boomers and 69% for the Silent Generation.
For Newsom, residents were “souring” on the governor in late spring, but the clash with Trump has boosted him.
“The overall point is that more people are feeling more favorable to Newsom since the dust-up between Trump and Newsom,” Gould said.
In late May and early June, Newsom’s approval rating was nearly as bad as Trump’s, according to the report. Fifty-five percent of the state disapproved of him with nearly one-third saying they strongly disapproved.
During that period, 65% of Democrats and 52% of Blacks approved of him and residents older than 80 were “evenly split” on Newsom, according to the report.
Newsom is seeing a lift from Democrats and independents since his verbal battles with Trump over the illegal immigration crackdowns.
As for the race to succeed Newsom, while Harris has a commanding lead, many voters don’t know who they would like to support.
“As we look to the next governor at this moment, Vice President Harris is a strong favorite,” Gould said. “It may be just as much as she has great name recognition.”
A year ahead of the primary election, 40% of Californians are unsure of their choice for governor, according to the report.
The poll shows “there is no other candidate currently within striking distance. Indeed, the vice president even tops (former Rep.) Katie Porter in Orange County,” where Porter served before an unsuccessful run for the U.S. Senate.
“When presented a binary choice between Harris and an unnamed Republican, 41% chose Harris, 29% the Republican, 16% were undecided, and 14% said they would not vote,” according to the report. “Vice President Harris maintains an 11% net favorability rating among Californians, the highest of candidates tested. Many respondents had never heard of several candidates, including those who have run statewide before.”
Harris had the support of 24% of respondents, with businessman Rick Caruso next at 9%, Porter at 6%, Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Mayor Antonio Villaraigoso at 4% and former Attorney General and U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and GOP activist Kyle Langford at 2%. The poll found that 40% of voters were undecided on the next governor’s race.
Among Democrats, Harris has 49% against Porter’s 11% with the rest in single digits. Among Republicans, Caruso led with 27%, followed by Bianco at 10% and Harris at just 3% with 38% undecided.
Among independents, 52% were undecided with 13% supporting Harris and Caruso the nearest competitor at 8%.