Some enterprising journalist will eventually pose a form of this question to Donald Trump: Would you bet me $1 million here and now that you’ll become president?
If the presumptive GOP nominee knows his odds, he’d be wise to decline — at any price point.
A survey of betting houses indicates Trump is a poor investment.
At paddypower.com, Hillary Clinton is a 4/11 favorite to win the White House. Trump is 2/1 and Bernie Sanders 33/1 as of Wednesday night. (Mitt Romney was 200/1.)
At electionbettingodds.com, Hillary was a 70.2 percent favorite, against Trump’s 26.5 percent — with Sanders trailing at 1.9 percent.
At the put-your-pennies-where-your-mouth is site Predictit.org, where shares are traded like a stock exchange, Clinton was going for 62 cents and Trump 40 cents. Sanders was at 7 cents.
The London Independent didn’t mince headline words, saying: “Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton is the most lopsided US election race in the modern era.”
The paper said: “Less than three weeks ago, Mr Trump’s odds had fallen to 55 per cent. Now, he is as likely to be the Republican nominee as Hillary Clinton is to be the Democratic nominee, with both a 98 per cent favourite in the betting markets. But the question remains: will he actually become President?
“Now that he’s wrapped up the nomination, his chances of being America’s next president have shot up from 17 per cent to 29 per cent. But that still makes Hillary Clinton a 69 per cent favourite (Mr Sanders or ‘some other Republican’ both have a 1 per cent chance).”
The paper surmised that Clinton begins a six-month race “more favoured than any other candidate in modern history: more than Mr. Obama ever was against John McCain in 2008 or Mitt Romney in 2012, or George Bush was against Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.”
Other takes on this electoral gamble:
— Club Poker (@ClubPoker_) May 5, 2016
— Matt Navarra ⭐️ (@MattNavarra) May 4, 2016
BREAKING: Trump wins Indiana, solidifying command of GOP race. Check out the current presidential betting odds! pic.twitter.com/nnaLezPRx0
— Labor411 (@Labor411) May 4, 2016
Realtime betting odds on the General election.. Interesting, Trump Surging but still “no chance” https://t.co/mKdibM9r2c
— Tom Brander (@dartdog) May 3, 2016
Oh and who has the better odds: Perfect NCAA bball bracket or person who predicted Trump would mollywhop the GOP competition?
— Myron Rolle (@MyronRolle) May 5, 2016