A new poll by the Darrell Issa campaign shows the eight-term Republican congressman leading his Democratic opponent 48 percent to 39 percent in the closely watched 49th District race.
While that’s mostly in San Diego County, it includes parts of Orange County, as well.
The survey by Public Opinion Strategies was conducted Oct. 4-6, ending the day before Donald Trump’s 2005 sex comments were released.
That poll surveyed 400 likely voters — including 120 on cell phones — and showed Issa leading his challenger, Doug Applegate, by 9 points.
In a rating of pollsters on Nate Silver’s closely watched fivethirtyeight.com, Public Opinion Strategies was given a B grade.
Issa campaign spokesman Calvin Moore said: “The polling shows what the Democrats just don’t want to admit — that no amount of money is enough to prop up a candidate with the kind of disturbing record Doug Applegate has. Doug Applegate has neither the ideas nor the temperament to represent us in Washington.”
Issa is facing his most competitive re-election bid to date, with the national Democratic Party targeting his support for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
Asked for comment on the Issa poll, Robert Dempsey of the Applegate campaign Tuesday declined to challenge the numbers but said: “Issa has spent the last 15 years putting his party ahead of his country and the people he is supposed to serve. It’s not surprising the race is getting away from him as more voters learn about his shameful support of Donald Trump.”
Dempsey pointed to a poll by San Francisco-based Tulchin Research released last week by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, putting the retired Marine colonel at 46 percent to Issa’s 42 percent. The poll was conducted conducted Sept. 28-30. It also has a B grade in the pollster ratings.
“Twelve percent of the 400 likely voters surveyed were undecided,” Roll Call said of the DCCC poll. “The survey was conducted on landlines and cell phones and had a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.”
In a sign that the presidential race could hurt Issa’s chances of winning a ninth House term, Roll Call said the Democratic poll showed Clinton with a 14-point edge in Issa’s district, “which Mitt Romney carried by 6 points in 2012.”
“Clinton led her GOP rival Donald Trump 49 to 35 percent,” Roll Call said. “The polling memo pointed out that this survey was conducted after the first presidential debate.”
Both campaigns are running attack ads, with Issa focusing on a restraining order granted to Applegate’s ex-wife, and Applegate highlighting the Trump connection.
The 49th District covers north coastal San Diego County and south Orange County.
Contributing editor Ken Stone contributed to this report.