Donald Trump’s presidential election will help push Orange County to outpace the rest of California and the nation in holiday sales starting with Black Friday the day after Thanksgiving, a Chapman University professor predicted.
Three factors drive holiday shopping — personal income, the unemployment rate and consumer confidence — according to economics professor Raymond Sfeir of Chapman University.
“My guess with Donald Trump being elected president some people might feel more like spending,” Sfeir said.
While the nation is polarized politically and more than half of the voters choose another candidate, Sfeir said that if Trump follows through with talk about infrastructure spending then that could boost consumer confidence.
“If government expenditures increase that’s going to increase incomes for the nation as a whole,” he said.
Trump’s talk of tax cuts in the higher income brackets will also hearten high-end shoppers, Sfeir said.
“It seems the high-end consumer sentiment is up at this time after the election,” he said.
“Stock prices are going up and with Trump’s election business leaders anticipate less regulation and weaker labor unions.”
And a lower tax bill will make wealthier shoppers “feel more at least spending on more luxury items,” Sfeir said.
“We’re expecting personal income in California to grow at 4.2 percent, 4.7 percent next year,” Sfeir said. “One would expect consumers to spend more money because of the growth in their income.”
Sfeir added, “employment in California is growing at a 2.5 percent clip this year, higher than the national level, which is 1.8 percent. We’re expecting that to continue next year as well.”
The state added 313,000 jobs this year as of October, Sfeir said.
“That’s a decent figure and we still have two more months to go,” he said.
In Orange County, “we are expecting something around a 2.8 percent increase in employment,” Sfeir said.
Consumer optimism is on the rise nationally, Sfeir said, citing a University of Michigan survey.
Irvine Co. officials, who own the high-end Fashion Island mall, the Irvine Spectrum Center and the Market Place in Tustin, also expect a vibrant shopping season.
“Post-election, there’s a lot of pent-up demand, and with a lot of promotions retailers are offering we anticipate this will be a good holiday shopping season,” said Easther Liu, the chief marketing officer for Irvine Co.’s retail properties.
At the Irvine Spectrum, officials have done more to add holiday decorations, Liu said.
“We have a new 50-foot LED Christmas tree in front of our Edwards Regal Theater,” Liu said.
“To connect the holiday theme front to back has been something we’ve been working on as a team for the past couple of years.”
The new tree features music and a light show that is activated for a few minutes every half hour, Liu said. The large Ferris wheel at the Spectrum is also adorned with 50,000 LED bulbs that are also programmed for light shows, Liu said.
On Black Friday, the Spectrum will offer free ice skating, rides on the Ferris wheel and carousel and complementary valet parking from midnight to 8 a.m., Liu said.
On Saturday, the Market Place in Tustin will feature “Duck the Halls,” with former Anaheim Ducks players and a “watch party” of their game against the Sharks on large TV screens, Liu said.
The Irvine Co. will also offer “Small Business Saturday” at the company’s Newport Beach stores. Shoppers who get a $10 gift card for each $100 they spend, Liu said.
There aren’t any hot toys, per se, this year such as the Cabbage Patch Doll or Tickle-Me Elmo, Liu said. Instead, kids crave toys generated by merchandising lines such as the “Star Wars” remake or from the popular app, Pokemon Go, Liu said.
Many children are more influenced by their peers on social media than they are on promotions from toymakers in big-box stores, Liu said.
“Kids are watching YouTube and finding out what’s big,” Liu said.
—City News Service