Odds favor below normal rainfall in Southern California this winter, according to a National Weather Service forecast.
The overall average of 25 computer models indicate there is a 55 to 60 percent chance of neutral conditions this winter, meaning neither El Nino nor La Nina conditions, said Eric Boldt, an Oxnard-based warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
The El Nino pattern, characterized by warming ocean temperatures near the equator, is likely to bring above normal rain, said Rich Thompson meteorologist.
There typically is no correlation to rainfall with La Nina conditions, lower than normal ocean water temperatures.
The El Nino pattern and accompanying heavy rainfall was forecast for last winter, but rainfall was below normal. The last time there was above normal rainfall in Southern California was in the 2010-11 season, Boldt said Monday.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for Southern California for December through February, Boldt said.
“The last 5 1/2 years have been the warmest on record,” Boldt said. Records have been kept since the late 1800s.
—City News Service