Hurricane Polo is not expected to reach Southern California, but swells generated by the storm could bring coastal flooding and significant beach erosion to parts of the region Monday and Tuesday, forecasters said Wednesday.
The National Weather Service said more forecasts now show Polo turning north and east toward Baja California Sur, with none showing Polo or Hurricane Odalys reaching Southern California.
“At this time there are exactly zero solutions that bring either of these systems to Southern California,” according to the NWS.
Forecasters said the greatest threat to Southern California from the tropical systems remains along the coast, where increasing south swells are expected beginning late Sunday and peaking Monday and Tuesday.
“Expecting elevated … swells from Hurricane Polo with elevated surf, with potential impacts peaking Mon-Tues,” the weather agency said. “Confidence is high in tide predictions near 7 (feet) Mon-Wed in the late morning hours. Low to moderate confidence for surf which is dependent on Polo’s track which has not been ironed out yet.”
The areas of greatest concern include the Peninsula and Belmont Shore in Long Beach, Avalon and Malibu, according to the NWS.
Forecasters said there is a high chance that coastal flood advisories could be issued Monday and Tuesday, with shallow seawater flooding possible on low-lying walkways, parking lots and roads. Significant beach erosion would also be possible.
There is a lower chance of more serious flooding that could prompt coastal flood warnings, with seawater potentially affecting structures, walkways, parking lots and roads and significant beach erosion expected, according to the NWS.
Uncertainty remains over Polo’s track and intensity.
“The message here is that the greatest threat to Southern California is again the beaches with periods of increasing south swells late Sunday and peaking Monday and Tuesday,” forecasters said.
A stray shower cannot be ruled out, but most forecast models indicate a trough moving through the region would push most tropical moisture south and east of Los Angeles County, according to the NWS.
Meanwhile, warm and generally quiet weather is expected through Saturday, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Forecasters said there is a 20% to 40% chance of temperatures reaching 100 degrees in the warmer valleys, while downtown Los Angeles has about a 60% to 70% chance of reaching 90 degrees each of the next three days.
A cooling trend is expected to begin Sunday as a trough moves onshore over Northern California.