In a matter of hours, California went from playing a critical role in the Republican presidential race to being a primary-season after-thought, but a Southland political expert said Wednesday he does not expect a big drop in turnout at the polls June 7.
“We almost mattered,” quipped Michael Madrid, a fellow at the USC Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and a Republican political strategist.
With Ted Cruz and John Kasich pulling out of the race following Indiana’s primary election on Tuesday, Donald Trump is the presumptive GOP nominee. That left California, which was once viewed as a late-election-season battleground that could either push Trump over the top or lead to a contested Republican National Convention, without a voice in the race.
Madrid told City News Service he could foresee the change about a week to 10 days ago, given the shifting of the numbers in support of Trump. Once Trump dominated in Indiana — and California polling showed him with a strong lead — there was little doubt left in the race.
“It was inevitable. The numbers were clearly moving in that direction,” Madrid said, adding that he had “hoped we would have had a little fight in California.”
“It was a very, very difficult roadmap for Ted Cruz in California,” he said.
But Madrid said he does not think the lack of competition in the presidential race will keep droves of Republicans away from the voting booth on June 7, although the state won’t have the “tidal wave we’ve seen in other states.”
Aside from the presidential race, the June 7 ballot has a number of races also likely to spark voter interest — notably the race to succeed the retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. Los Angeles County voters will also cast ballots for candidates looking to replace termed-out county Supervisors Mike Antonovich and Don Knabe.
Madrid also said that while it may take time, he believes the Republican Party will rally behind Trump.
“Nothing will unite Republicans more than Hillary Clinton,” he said, referring to the Democratic front-runner.
Madrid acknowledged that the Republican campaign has been “more challenging, directed and confrontational,” but political primary seasons generally end with the party coalescing around the nominee.
“I think it’s going to take some time, but I think it’s more likely than not,” he said.
The Clinton campaign wasted no time raising questions about that possibility, circulating a three-page list of quotes from Republicans claiming they will not support Trump in any circumstance.
John Burton, chairman of the California Democratic Party, said Trump showed his true colors when — after weeks of bashing Cruz as a liar whose father associated with Lee Harvey Oswald — he quickly praised him as a tough competitor when he dropped out of the raise.
“Now that he wants to kiss and make up, Americans need to remember that Trump is just like all the typical politicians he says he hates,” Burton said. “America will now start to see the many false faces of Donald Trump.”
— Wire reports